More on finding economic predictions for 2016... and beyond!

In my last post, I talked about using the economics sections of major Canadian financial institutions to find key economic measures, as well as forecasts of the same.  Today we're going to extend the discussion to economic predictions from a few key SFU Library databases.

And, as with yesterday's post, we'll focus on finding CDN/US exchange rate forecasts as a means of exploring the resources under discussion.

1. The Economist Intelligence Unit, the organization behind things like The Economist magazine, regularly tracks all political and economic developments that might have an impact on doing business in every country of the world.  Start with their Country Report for Canada, the most recent of which forecasts that the Canadian dollar will hover around 0.75 USD for the first half of 2016, before rising to 0.80 USD by the end of the year.  

   On a more positive front, the EIU sees Canada's dollar rising in the longer term: from an average of about 0.82 USD in 2017 all the way up to an average of 0.91 USD in 2020. Frankly, though, prognosticating 4 years ahead is a chancey sort of thing... looking at the Dec. 2011 EIU report for Canada, I see that they predicted one Canadian dollar would buy 1.02 USD on average for all of 2015 and 2016.  <Sigh. Remember those days of heady optimism?>  
   
     

2. If the EIU's willingness to forecast 4-5 years ahead seems overly brave, then Euromonitor, the organization behind our Passport GMID database, is postively foolhardy in predicting rates as far forward as 2030! At the moment, they anticipate our dollar will average close to 0.77 USD for each year from 2016 all the way through to 2030. Can you imagine a world where such things were stable over such long periods?  

   If you haven't used it before, Passport GMID's interface can be a bit daunting, but if you persevere, they provide time series data on thousands of economic, demographic, and retail topics for most of the world.
   
     

3. Canada is a member of the OECD, so perhaps consulting our OECD iLibrary is worth a shot? After a quick bit of digging, I uncover their online publication "OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections," the 2015/2 edition of which predicts our dollar will average about 0.76 USD for 2016 and 2017.  

   Switching to the last (2014 - issue #95) edition of the OECD's Long-term Baseline Projections, I see that at the time, the OECD projected the Canadian dollar would be worth 0.89 USD in 2016 and 0.87 in 2017, before beginning a slow and steady decline all the way down to 0.72 USD by 2060. I'll leave it to my grandkids to check to see if those terminal values were accurate!

OK, I'm guessing that's about enough on exchange rate forecasts for now, except to add a warning from the folks at UBC's Pacific Exchange Rate Service: "There is no reliable method available to forecast exchange rates." Approach all such numbers with great care and much critical thinking!  

And please do remember that this post and the one from yesterday are both really intended to alert you to some great sources for economic data -- both current and forecasted.  Even if exchange rates aren't on your shopping list, these resources have much else to offer.  Check them out!

Good luck with your research! 

-- Mark

Mark Bodnar

Business & Economics Librarian